Seasonal Stock Orders: Check the Cash Gap First

Begin with the supplier's payment calendar

Read the actual quote. A balance payable before dispatch can leave weeks between paying for stock and receiving customer cash. Note freight, storage, inspection and any import-related payments separately using your own quotes and applicable advice.

Don't make the sales date the receipt date automatically. Card settlement, wholesale terms and customer returns can change when cash is available. Use the general cash forecast for the surrounding business and add this order as a separate section.

Follow the order through six weeks

Assumptions: AUD total bank amounts, including applicable GST; no tax refunds assumed. Opening cash $30,000. Ordinary net trading outflow $2,000 each week. Stock costs $6,000 in week 1 and $12,000 in week 3, with $2,000 freight in week 4. Seasonal receipts are $10,000 in weeks 5 and 6.

Week	Order event	Base closing cash	One-week sales delay
1	Pay deposit	$22,000	$22,000
2	Production	$20,000	$20,000
3	Pay final balance	$6,000	$6,000
4	Freight and arrival	$2,000	$2,000
5	First sales receipts	$10,000	$0
6	Further receipts	$18,000	$8,000

Original ASBG worked example. All businesses, amounts and scenarios are fictional. The table contains the same figures as the visual.

The base plan's lowest week-end balance is $2,000. If the owner needs a $5,000 operating floor, even the base plan is $3,000 short of that floor. The delayed-sales scenario reaches zero, a $5,000 floor shortfall, before recovering.

This delay assumes supplier and freight payment dates stay unchanged and customer receipts move a week. Extra storage or express freight would make the dip larger. Extend the forecast past week 6 to capture the delayed second receipt and any remaining commitments.

Test weak demand separately

If both seasonal receipts fall from $10,000 to $6,000 without a timing delay, the week-5 balance becomes $6,000 and week 6 becomes $10,000. The initial $2,000 low point stays the same, but recovery is weaker. That matters if another stock order is due in week 7.

Check daily balances around the final payment. A comfortable Friday closing balance can conceal a Tuesday shortage if customer settlements arrive on Thursday. Weekly totals are a first pass, not payment authority.

Compare changes the supplier can offer

Price a smaller quantity, split delivery or different deposit arrangement. Record any change the supplier actually agrees to, including effects on unit price and freight. A hoped-for extension doesn't belong in the base case.

Business Victoria's stock-control guidance recommends reviewing sales patterns and considering smaller, more frequent deliveries. Use the supplier-terms worksheet to put dates behind that discussion.

Check what happens to unsold stock

List the goods that could carry into the next season, their storage needs and plausible clearance receipts. A product's margin doesn't solve the upfront cash gap. Use the slow-stock review for an existing pile-up before ordering more.

Key takeaways

• Include every payment from deposit to customer collection.
• Test both delayed receipts and lower sales, including their combined effect when plausible.
• Compare the lowest balance with a chosen operating floor, then check critical days.

Where to get help

Ask the supplier to confirm payment and delivery dates in writing. Take the dated cash schedule to your accountant or business adviser if the order would leave essential payments unfunded.